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The value of wheat production is forecast to reach a record high of $15 billion in 2022–23, surpassing the previous record of $13.1 billion in 2021–22 (Figure 1.1). This is driven by record production and high world prices. Above average spring rainfall and flooding in many regions of eastern Australia caused significant damage and crop losses for growers in affected areas. However, strong production in areas not flooded have offset these losses.
The quality profile of the Australian crop was impacted by mild spring conditions and a wet harvest. This resulted in below average protein levels recorded in Western Australia and parts of South Australia and Victoria. In central and southern New South Wales, a higher than usual share of wheat made low protein and feed grades. However, the quality profile of the wheat crop in Queensland and northern New South Wales was excellent with an average share of wheat making high protein grades. Overall, there has been less downgraded grain and protein levels have been higher than was initially expected. Although quality downgrades affect the prices that growers receive and reduce the overall value of production, they have been partially offset by high yields.
In 2023–24, the value of wheat production is forecast to fall to $10.7 billion. Despite being a significant fall in value, it is still well above average and would be the third highest value on record. Production is expected to decrease following 3 consecutive high-production years under an expectation of average to below average rainfall. World prices are expected to remain high over 2023–24 with some easing due to high world production, improving supply chain movements, reduced trade disruptions and falling fertiliser prices. However, world grain markets could remain volatile for longer if the pace of world economic growth is slowed, global inflation remains high and agri-food markets remain disrupted. This edition of the Agricultural Commodities Report considers both scenarios over the outlook period to 2027–28 (see the Agricultural Overview for a full explanation). Over the medium term, the real value of wheat production is forecast to range from $6.3 billion to $10.5 billion, depending heavily on domestic and international seasonal conditions.
World feed grain demand is forecast to increase because of projected higher meat and dairy production. This will also coincide with the US cattle herd rebuild following significant destocking due to prolonged and widespread drought.
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